European leaders react with relief to US midterms results
BRUSSELS — Much of Europe breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as a weaker-than-expected showing by Republicans and the absence of major election violence eased concern about turmoil in the transatlantic relationship and the health of American democracy — at least for now.
The results of the first major races since the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection are likely to lend some short-term stability to efforts to isolate Russia and support Ukrainian forces, the central concern for European officials and diplomats heading into the midterms. The outcome will also add a sense of continuity to day-to-day diplomacy.
But for a continent still reeling from Trump-era upheavals, the midterm races were a bracing reminder that despite talk of bolstering Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” American politics still very much shape European affairs. With or without a “red wave” this year, Europe knows that it has not seen the end of Donald Trump or Trumpism and must plan accordingly.
“This is not as bad as we thought it would be,” said François Heisbourg, a security expert and longtime adviser to French officials. But the fear of a return by Trump in 2024, he said, is “obviously still there.”
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“Even if the pessimistic assumption that Donald Trump would become U.S. president again in 2024 has become a bit more unrealistic, there remains enough reason for the E.U. to prepare for further shifts in its relationship with the United States,” Reinhard Bütikofer, a German member of European Parliament, said in a statement.
“Under these circumstances, the E.U. must set its strategic priorities between the extremes of illusory autonomy and a comfortable reliance on the United States.”
While the final results in the United States are still uncertain, including control of Congress, early analysis Wednesday reflected genuine surprise in Europe at the results.
“Red wave or just a ripple?” asked the Times of London. France’s left-leaning Libération newspaper wrote that “the results of the midterm elections are much less bad than feared for the Democrats,” and that there has been “no Republican tsunami.”
Germany’s Bild tabloid paper called the Republican performance “astonishing,” given factors such as “inflation and the impending economic crisis, a new wave of migrants from the South, and dissatisfaction with Biden.”
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Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program at Chatham House, a British think tank, said early results upended expectations. “So many people from Europe had really bought into the fear of a Donald Trump return,” she said.
In recent weeks, many European observers predicted the Republicans would easily take both chambers of Congress and the front-of-mind question was whether a wave of Trump-aligned candidates skeptical of the war effort in Ukraine would prevail, potentially unraveling the united front on Ukraine and handing a battlefield advantage to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In the more than eight months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and allies in Europe have rallied together to back Ukraine, together pledging more than $90 billion in military, financial and humanitarian assistance — with most of that coming from the United States.
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But in the lead-up to the midterms, comments from Republicans have raised questions about whether that support would continue. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said last month that a Republican-controlled House would not continue to issue “blank check” funding for Ukraine — a sentiment echoed by some GOP candidates but walked back by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
On Wednesday, with the results still being tallied, it was not yet clear where the Republican position would land. In the days and weeks ahead, European officials will be watching closely to see whether the Biden administration can hold the line on Ukraine at home and parsing what that means for Europe.
Tara Varma, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the midterm elections — and questions they prompted over their impact on Ukraine — have once again displayed the extent to which Europe still depends on the United States.
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“The war in Ukraine has changed fundamentally how the E.U. views itself,” she said. But “for the E.U. to constitute itself as a military power is not something that will happen overnight; it’s also not something that a number of member states are hopeful the E.U. will do.”
Beyond military aid lurks the broader and still-yet-unresolved question of what ongoing U.S. polarization and upheaval means for America’s place in the world — and its allies in Europe.
Martin Quencez, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Paris office, said early Wednesday that Europe is relieved that some of the worst-case predictions of the United States “falling into the hands of election deniers” had not totally come true. But he cautioned that the next two years could still become challenging for transatlantic relations.
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“The question is whether the U.S. Congress can still produce foreign policy, can still produce predictability for allies,” he said, or if it will revolve around partisan debates “that have very little importance to Europeans.”
“It’s more this kind of institutional crisis that I think could affect allies, if we simply see that the Biden administration and the U.S. as a whole cannot play the role of a leader,” he said.
As the world waited for the final results, European analysts seemed split on Trump’s prospects.
“There is a feeling that the inevitability of the return of Trump to power in 2024 has been smashed,” said Dominique Moïsi, a French foreign policy expert.
Italy’s Corriere della Sera ran an item on Ron DeSantis, “the Trump with brains,” that noted the Florida governor’s complex relationship with the former president. La Repubblica, another Italian newspaper, noted that the “rising Republican star” could challenge Trump in a primary race.
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Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a conservative newspaper, said the results showed “Trump has messed up the midterms for the Republicans.”
Noting victories by candidates who deny the outcome of the 2020 election, the paper did not rule out the possibility of a Trump comeback.
“The former president could win again in 2024,” the paper said, “or lose and still get into the White House.”
Beatriz Ríos in Brussels contributed to this report.
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